Weekly Snacks is owned by , a multi-strategy equity research service specializing in small-caps and below. If you’re looking for additional, high-quality research, you can sign up below.

Cedar Grove Capital Management

Multi-strategy investment fund focused on L/S, M&A Arb, and Special Situations.

By Paul Cerro

Investment Pitches

Cedar Grove Capital Management

BBW: After An >150% Return, Build-A-Bear Still Looks Close to a Double

It's not a paid ad but I just wanted to let everyone know that if you’re wondering what I use to get my information for my research, it’s largely Koyfin. If you’re interested in checking it out (I highly recommend it), you can get 20% off your plan using my link…

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a year ago · 6 likes · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

released updated thoughts on Build-A-Bear (BBW) workshop after their initial post two years ago. Despite the run-up in the stock to the tune of >150% since then, there’s still more juice left to squeeze. If growth works out in the asset-light side of the business, the company could be worth another double in just a few years.

TL;DR:

David Einhorn published last month his take on Green Brick Partners (GRBK). GRBK’s focus on owning its land and maintaining a low-leverage balance sheet has led to superior gross margins and return on equity, positioning the company for continued outperformance in homebuilding.

The company continues to lead the industry in gross margins and has distinguished itself from its peers, who increasingly focus on being “land light.” GRBK owns most of its land while maintaining a low-leveraged, investment-grade balance sheet. As a result, it earns all of the development profits in addition to the homebuilding profits. Despite being “land heavy,” the result is a return on equity near the top of the industry. GRBK has had a very successful period of land acquisition, and prospects for delivering industry-leading margins remain promising.

As a point of reference, this was first shown here (credit where credit is due).

TL;DR:

This one isn’t so much a pitch but more so to post on a writer who quickly turned around his thoughts on a pitch that he not long ago was very optimistic about. He originally shared his turnaround thoughts on PetMed Express (PETS) a month ago, making the case that the company could be turning around, albiet, in time. However, after it’s most recent earnings and a conference presentation, he wasn’t so optimistic anymore which I think is important for investors to learn from and have humility. If you’re interested, you can reference the updated post above or the linked post for the original.

Tweets of the Week

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Related News

Amazon introduces low upfront pricing for a telehealth visit

• This matters because now it’s officially entered the fray with Hims and Hers Health (HIMS) in directly the same categories that HIMS currently operates within. This initial news sent the stock down >25% in a single day on worries that Amazon will come for their lunch.

Coach parent Tapestry pulls $8.5 bln bid for Capri

• While TPR had to appeal the judge's decision last month as part of the merger agreement, the likelihood of them continuing with the claim was very low. Speculation surrounded the idea that with a Trump presidency, the numbered days of Lina Khan might change things, however, this was not to be the case.

Matt Gaetz for AG Bullish for Cannabis

• In a U-turn from Donald Trump’s first term in the White House, the president-elect’s pick for attorney general is a friend of pro-cannabis policies. However, after resigning amidst impending reports of his misconduct with a minor and his own party speaking out that confirmation would be a hail mary, the cannabis industry is becoming very volatile on the speculative nature of Gaetz getting appointed.

General Research

Kyla’s Newsletter

How Trump Won, What Happens Next, and How Disconnects Drove Democracy

So here is my best attempt at a summary of the absolute barrage of information that has come out over the past week. It’s been a total whirlwind and there are a lot of important takeaways for the economy and for the direction of the country. This article is very long. In this piece, I summarize 1) how Trump won 2) what he plans to do 3) what he is doin…

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a year ago · 190 likes · 48 comments · kyla scanlon

Investing 101

The Unholy Trinity of Venture Capital

This is a weekly newsletter about the art and science of building and investing in tech companies. To receive Investing 101 in your inbox each week, subscribe here…

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a year ago · 16 likes · 2 comments · Kyle Harrison

Podcasts

The Mikro Kap

Off The Beaten Path Investing

“What I came to do was look left when everybody's looking right, look down when everybody's looking up, and find companies that are off the beaten path, overlooked or ignored by otherwise intelligent investors…

Listen now

a year ago · 54 likes · 7 comments · David Katunarić

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

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Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

Weekly Snacks is owned by , a multi-strategy equity research service specializing in small-caps and below. If you’re looking for additional, high-quality research, you can sign up below.

Cedar Grove Capital Management

Multi-strategy investment fund focused on L/S, M&A Arb, and Special Situations.

By Paul Cerro

Investment Pitches

Summit Stocks

Stock Deep Dive - L'Oréal: Creating the Beauty That Moves the World

Dear reader…

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a year ago · 8 likes · 2 comments · Summit Stocks

TL;DR:

While many are leaving make-up for dead at the moment, like Estee Lauder (EL), goes over L’Oreal and its business. Given that it’s been underperforming the market, it warrants looking at as a potential turnaround if the stock is able to stabalize. With ROIC north of 20% for the last 5 years, it might eventually become a “no-brainer” as the author puts it.

Motorhead

Tesla's $218-Billion "Impunity" Premium

(Please note that the Motorhead Substack will be moving behind a paywall on November 28. An annual subscription before that is 26% cheaper than monthly rates from thereon. See details here…

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a year ago · 22 likes · 8 comments · Motorhead

TL;DR:

The meteoric rise of Tesla (TSLA) is largely driven by a “removal of fraud” risk factor. Even though the company trades at a higher P/E than it did in 2021 when it had higher profit margins. This is essentially pricing in a Musk “get out of jail free card”. The issue is, will this valuation be able to hold if underlying fundamentals don’t continue to deteriorate.

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Tweets of the Week

General Research

Mindset Value

Where’s the Beef?

The Florida constitutional amendment (Amendment #3) to legalize adult use in Florida failed to pass the needed 60% threshold on Tuesday. The reaction from investors has been swift and brutal, especially to Florida focused cannabis companies. Some stocks fell as much over 56% in just one day…

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a year ago · 8 likes · Aaron Edelheit

The Honest Broker

Is There a Crisis of Seriousness?

Back in 1996, critic Susan Sontag warned that seriousness was disappearing from society…

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a year ago · 1059 likes · 233 comments · Ted Gioia

Special Situation Investing

Datacenters and Nuclear Power

Welcome to Episode 136 of Special Situation Investing…

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2 years ago · 38 likes · 5 comments

Podcasts

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

Share

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Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Cedar Grove Capital Recap

It’s been a pretty busy month of October. We published 7 different reports in the past month. 4 were company-specific Owlet (OWLT) Turnaround; +22%, IPO of KinderCare Learning Center, and pre-earnings updates on GEN Restaurant (GENK) and Hims and Hers Health (HIMS).

Sadly, our arb trade of Tapestry’s (TPR) acquisition of Capri (CPRI) was blocked which was a shocker to most. We shared our final thoughts on the deal here with us announcing that we’d be selling out of our position. Our break price of $20 seemed to be pretty accurate given where the stock is currently trading at.

There’s been much talk about how CPRI could divest Jimmy Choo and Versace to raise cash and turn Kors around on its own. If you're interested in hearing about this take, I go over it and much more on a previously recorded Twitter Spaces.

Lastly, we also shared our Q3’24 portfolio letter and a piece on how robotics is helping improve restaurant-level margins and growth.

A lot of research has been shared and we have lots more to share with you all through the end of the year.

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Investment Pitches

Value Investing for Sophisticated Investors

Poking Holes in Einhorn's PTON Thesis

David Einhorn of Greenlight fame recently discussed his Peloton thesis at the JP Morgan Robin Hood Investors’ Conference. His claim that could rise to as much as $31.50 sent tongues wagging on CNBC — given that it currently sits at $8.50/share…

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2 years ago · 7 likes · @ValueInvesting

TL;DR:

As someone who has shorted Peloton (PTON) in the past, Value Investing for Sophisticated Investors does a good job of at least pressure-testing the notion that PTON is worth what David Einhorn says it could be worth. Enjoyed the commentary on this one.

Dungeon Investing

Games Workshop: Going mainstream

This blog is a year old already, and there are a few things that I have been wanting to revisit in light of the latest developments, and Games Workshop is one of them. Their report came out in July revealing some interesting tidbits about their improved economics. After that, some other interesting developments, including worldwide success for Space Mar…

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2 years ago · 13 likes · 6 comments · Dungeon Investing

TL;DR:

The above is a quick update on Games Workshop (LON: GAW), a name that I’ve been meaning to investigate further. The writer breaksdown the company at a high level and why the future monetization of IP could be very fruitful for the company. Something to read if you’re looking to learn a little more about the company on your own.

The Mikro Kap

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due

You've seen me analyze Italian newspaper companies, boring spare parts distributors, and Florida orange growers. You've also seen me research NYC office REITs, UK greeting card retailers, and Australian gold drillers. I bought very small companies, very cheaply, in industries that most investors would either find disgusting or never dare look at…

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2 years ago · 72 likes · 22 comments · David Katunarić

TL;DR:

David Katunarić does a great job of diving deep into Credit Bureau Asia (TCU.SI), a credit bureau that operates across Asia. David believes that growth can come from multiple areas that are actually tailwinds for the company on a micro/macro level. Given his calculations on FCF growth, IRR is still looking to be in the low double-digits if what he belives to happen, happens. Worth a read for anyone looking at expanding their Asia exposure.

Notable Market Updates

• FDA Marks All Doses of Semaglutide “Available”; Link

  • Why this matters: Tirzepatide was already removed from the shortage list in early October which meant that smaller compounders needed to stop producing the formula immediately while bigger compounders were allowed a 60-day grace period. With the addition of Semaglutide being marked “available” by the FDA, the clock is ticking for when a shortage would be removed which would mean all compounders would be in violation of compounding the drug post-removal. This has an effect on public companies like Hims and Hers Health (HIMS), Weight Watchers (WW), and others that are offering compounded versions.

• Roaring Kitty Exits Chewy (CHWY) Trade; Link

  • Why this matters: With Roaring Kitty finally out, perhaps the meme pump for pet stocks like Chewy and Petco (WOOF) is over and we can revisit the names under fundamental reasons. I have a history with both these companies and they might warrant another look now that Kieth is out.

• Buffet Sold More Apple / Cash Pile At All-Time High; Link

  • Why this matters: Berkshire is pausing stock buybacks and has raised its cash balance by ~$48B in one quarter to a record $325B. Speculation surrounds this cash pile to mean that Berkshire is possibly preparing for a recession or dramatic slowdown and is raising cash to protect itself from a downturn while also setting itself up to acquire (distressed) assets on the cheap.

General Research

Anarchonomicon

Short Take: Tariffs are the Best Form of Taxation

Follow me on Twitter: @FromKulak…

Read more

2 years ago · 71 likes · 38 comments · Kulak

The Daily Brief

Massive crisis in the microfinance sector

On Daily Brief, we cover the biggest stories in the markets, but we don't cover specific market movements. One of the most common requests we received from you was for a newsletter and video that does exactly this - summarizing what happened in the markets on a given day…

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2 years ago · 39 likes · 4 comments · Zerodha

The Bubble Bubble Report

The Silver Squeeze Has Officially Begun

For the past several weeks, I've been writing articles and creating video presentations about an imminent silver breakout that could quickly push prices to $50. During this time, I've observed significant investor cynicism, as many grew frustrated with silver's sideways movement over the last five months. In that content, I encouraged investors to remai…

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2 years ago · 122 likes · 31 comments · Jesse Colombo

Audio / Podcasts

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks, a free aggregator of various forms of content. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

Share

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Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

Fund Twitter: @cedargrovecm

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Investment Pitches

Cedar Grove Capital Management

HIMS: Icarus Might Be Flying Too Close To The Sun

It's not a paid ad but just wanted to let everyone know that if you’re wondering what I use to get my information for my research, it’s largely Koyfin. I use it daily and rely heavily on it to get the necessary information for my reports. If you’re interested in checking it out (highly recommend it), you can get 20% off your plan if you use my code…

Read more

2 years ago · 2 likes · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

With so much surrounding the GLP-1 hype over the last year, Hims and Her Health (HIMS) has been very much in the public eye. I took to writing a post-earnings update on why I believe the stock has slumped since earnings. I also raised concerns about the future strategy around the compounding of GLP-1s which does nothing but add uncertainty and risk to what was originally a pretty straightforward strategy.

Jake's Substack

Wise Investment Thesis

Read more

2 years ago · 9 likes · Jake Barfield

TL;DR:

I know I posted another idea from Jake last week but he had another one from his investor letter that I needed to share with you all. It’s on Wise Plc (WISE), a facilitator cross-border money transfers for personal and business customers across more than 160 countries and more than 40 different currencies. Jake believes that the long story for this company is quite compelling and the underlying business is not getting the recognition it deserves. I would take a read at this one and see for yourself.

TL;DR:

Coming from another short seller, Bleecker Street, they now believe that Gogo Inc (GOGO) is really pushing their promises of a 5G upgrade. Bleecker highlights that the outsourced development of this upgrade has been riddled with delays leaving the company with a stagnant business for several years now. They hint that the company is not being entirely truthful in its disclosures to investors about the problems that it’s having. With Elon’s Starlink coming online, the competetion is real for the future of GOGO.

TL;DR:

Spruce Point recently wrote a short report on Zebra Technologies Corp (ZBRA), a designer and manufacturer of bar code scanners, printers, and mobile computing devices. They believe that their $2.1 billion leveraged acquisition spree and venture investments should be considered failures. They also raise concerns about multiple accounting and financial reporting which leads them to believe a downside of 65% - 80% in the stock price may be warranted.

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Tweets of the Week

General Research

Charles Hugh Smith's Substack

There's Just One Problem: AI Isn't Intelligent, and That's a Systemic Risk

The mythology of Technology has a special altar for AI, artificial intelligence, which is reverently worshiped as the source of astonishing cost reductions (as human labor is replaced by AI) and the limitless expansion of consumption and profits. AI is the blissful perfection of technology's natural advance to ever greater powers…

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2 years ago · 49 likes · 5 comments · Charles Hugh Smith

Unfiltered by Tim Denning

Going Slow Is the #1 Sign of a Truly Successful Person Living a Badass Life

The world is speeding up so fast that we’ve all become coke addicts…

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2 years ago · 210 likes · 74 comments · Tim Denning

Podcasts

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

Share

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Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Investment Pitches

Sweet Stocks

Loungers – growth at a very reasonable price

Personal note: Loungers has long been a top position, but I hesitated to share a write-up until now. This was partly due to low liquidity, but also because it seemed improbable that they could trade through the tough UK macro conditions without succumbing to a profit warning. Instead, the recent FY24 results were impressively robust, and left me with no…

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2 years ago · 18 likes · 2 comments · Alex Sweet

TL;DR:

Another pitch from where he shares his thoughts on Loungers (LGRS.L), a self-funded all-day cafe bar chain that operates in the U.K. The company is seeing multiple tailwinds such as growing AUV, sales, and new unit growth where they see the potential of ~660 new units. With a plan to boost margins and improve FCF, this illiquid micro-cap seems to have a very bright future.

Jake's Substack

Asheville Capital's 2024 Interim Letter

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2 years ago · 3 likes · Jake Barfield

TL;DR:

has had some pretty good ideas that I’ve come across which makes him a must follow in my book. He recently shared a new position of his, Auto Partner (WSE: APR), where he believes it’s a decade-long investment opportunity in a business that is capable of growing revenues in the high-teens for the better half of that period, and in the low-teens thereafter, with increasing annual profit margins. Consolidation in the EU auto parts industry is a big tailwind considering less than 1% of the market is owned by large-scale distributors vs 40% in the U.S.

Port Louis Newsletter

Mispriced Avionics Player Poised for an Inflection (IS&S - NASDAQ: ISSC)

Elevator Pitch…

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2 years ago · 5 likes · Harshil Chooramun

TL;DR:

shared their thoughts on Innovative Solutions and Support Inc (ISSC), a manufacturer or avionic systems and components for areospace applications. The founder recently passed away and new management has taken over and is actively pursuing new acquisitions of bolstering the company. Harhsil highlights three different scenerios that he believes can potentially happen where the upside reveals a nice R/R opportunity. If his numbers are correct, he believes an upside of 85% is possible.

Cedar Grove Capital Management

HIMS: Pre-Earnings Commentary and Updated Model

It's not a paid ad but just wanted to let everyone know that if you’re wondering what I use to get my information for my research, it’s largely Koyfin. I use it daily and rely heavily on it to get the necessary information for my reports. If you’re interested in checking it out (highly recommend it), you can get 20% off your plan if you use my code…

Read more

2 years ago · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

Given all the continued hype around Hims and Hers Health (HIMS) and my background working at their competitor, I shared my updated thoughts around the GLP-1 side of the business. The updated commentary revolve around the recent news of LLY tirzepatide shortage ending, what WW International (WW) has hinted regarding their GLP-1 business and how that effects the numbers going forward.

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Tweets of the Week

General Research

Quality Investing with René Sellmann

Why Compounding Doesn’t Work the Way You Think It Does!

Most of the readers of this blog will be aware of the power of compound interest. It’s often referred to as “ the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn't … pays it.” (allegedly a quote from Albert Einstein…

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2 years ago · 23 likes · Rene

Pari Passu

PP: Lockheed Martin Deep Dive

Welcome to the 85th Pari Passu newsletter…

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2 years ago · Restructuring__

The Equity Analyst

Coatue discussing tech trends

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2 years ago · 8 likes · Richard Toad

Podcasts

Chit Chat Stocks

Is Sprouts Farmers Market Stock Fairly Valued? (Ticker: SFM)

YouTube…

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2 years ago · 7 likes · 2 comments · Chit Chat Stocks

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

Share

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Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

Any feedback? Hit reply

Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Investment Pitches

Bill Huang's Stonks

Nonsensical Bear Thesis at The Watches of Switzerland Group $WOSG

Executive Summary…

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2 years ago · 20 likes · 6 comments · Bill Huang

TL;DR:

Author Bill Huang shared their thoughts on Watches of Switzerland Group (WOSG) in what they highlight as a market misunderstanding of the future of watch retailing. Currently, the market is hitting WOSG because of assumptions that Rolex might be selling their goods via DTC, essentially hitting WOSG retail arm since 55% of WOSG’s sales is directly related to Rolex. The author also points to a recent deterioration of the stock related to a broader luxury slowdown which we’ve seen recently in other names. Bill thinks it’s highly unlikely that Rolex will start to sell via DTC and that the licensing part of the Rolex business is what protects WOSG from competitors.

Antarctic Circle Capital

Special Situation || K2A Preference Shares trading at 13.89% dividend yield

Dear Readers…

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2 years ago · 14 likes · Antarctic Circle Capital

TL;DR:

An interesting special situation is on K2A Knaust & Andersson Fastigheter AB (K2A Pref) preferred shares specifically. Earlier in the year, the company suspended the dividend due to liquidity constraints and the stock quickly sold off by 50%. However, preferred shares still need to have their unpaid dividends paid in the future alongside a 12% penalty on unpaid amounts. Given that the company has been able to sell a share of a building for $600 million SEK, the company is in a much better financial position to pay its future bond obligations which means that the future for the preferreds could be advantageous now than it was just a few months ago. Antartic Circle thinks investors can benefit from a 13.89% yield plus potential share price appreciation, with minimal foreseeable risk.

TL;DR:

Last week, Bleeker Street Research posted a short report on Dave Inc (DAVE) in what they believe is a predatory lender disguised as a consumer-friendly fintech. The author highlights that DAVE’s “tipping” feature has allowed it to essentially capture loan-shark level APRs though customers have been slowly wising up to this scheme. Tipping is a large part of the business (22% of ‘23 sales and contributed $42M in contribution profits) and because customers are tipping less, Bleeker suggests that the actual earnings of DAVE would swing to massive operating losses. An interesting read for anyone in that space.

Cedar Grove Capital Management

RCAT: Event-Driven Trade Could Be Worth ~200%

TL;DR Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) is in the final two to be considered for a multi-year Army drone contract that could be worth ~$450 million; ~3.3x current market cap Strong probability the company wins the contract given current contractor's (incumbent) battlefield issues and arguably inferior drone design…

Listen now

2 years ago · 3 likes · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

I actually posted about Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) back in Weekly Snacks 33 but at the time I hadn’t done my own due diligence on it. After I did, I realized that a lot of the authors assumptions were incorrect and misleading. I published my thoughts on the event-driven trade, the math behind the U.S. Army contract that the company is a finalist for any why I believe that the upside of 200% if they win might just be the tip of the iceberg.

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Tweets of the Week

General Research

Generative Value

A Primer on Semiconductor Capital Equipment

The semiconductor capital equipment (semicap) industry is one of the most important industries on the planet and one that doesn’t get much love (outside of ASML). The industry has a number of structural advantages leading towards attractive investment characteristics for long-term, quality-focused investors: deep competitive advantages, technical differ…

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2 years ago · 39 likes · 2 comments · Eric Flaningam

Cedar Grove Capital Management

Defense Contractors: Peace Means Having the Bigger Stick

My old man had a philosophy: peace means having a bigger stick than the other guy…

Listen now

2 years ago · 9 likes · Paul Cerro

Podcasts

Preferred Shares

Henry Crown and Material Service Corporation

Welcome to Episode 12 of the Preferred Shares Podcast…

Listen now

2 years ago · 4 likes

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

Share

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Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Investment Pitches

Brainless Investing

Atkore

The Business Atkore is a manufacturer that specializes in electrical, safety and infrastructure products. 90% of what they sell falls into the electrical infrastructure category. They manufacture things like: Electrical conduit and fittings Cable and cable management systems…

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2 years ago · 5 likes · 15 comments · TJ Terwilliger

TL;DR:

Brainless Investing wrote a piece on Atkore International (ATKR), who is a manufacturer of infrastructure porducts. ATKR has had an impressive run over the last 10 years, growing revenue at a 9% CAGR and EPS of 21%. While mny investors might argue that the future is still very bright, the author argues that it’s too difficult to determine if there’s still juice left to squeeze. None of management have bought shares in the last year and in order to reach a 15% annual IRR, the company needs to generate at least 9.5% CAGR in FCF growth which is very optimistic. If the market over-reacts, the author thinks it would be worth revisitng.

The Mikro Kap

Orange Is the New Black

Since I started following more than three years ago, Murphy’s law has struck it hard and anything that could go wrong has gone wrong. However, with the stock price falling, margin of safety expanding and the business heading toward an inflection, the setup looks much different now…

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2 years ago · 35 likes · 13 comments · David Katunarić

TL;DR:

The Mikro Cap wrote a very long but very thorough report on Alico (ALCO), Florida’s largest orange producer. David goes into detail what helped lead to the companiy’s decline but what is now arguably helping it turnaround. He goes in-depth about market share related to land, diseases that have been killing crops and lowering yields, etc. Like I said, it is a long pitch but one of the better one’s that covers a single name. If you’re interested in a turnaround that has some acceleration, I’d take a look at this one.

TL;DR:

Grizzly Research put out a short report on Pinterest (PINS) claiming that the company is seeing its user base leave in droves due to poor changes in user experience, ad spams, while also engaging in fraudulent click-farms to secure KPIs. Grizzly dives deep into what they believe are sings that KPIs are being manipulated and that web traffic is declining rapidly all while the company is pushing hard into low-income markets. They label this stage of their business as a “death spiral” with an inevitable price range of $5 - $16/share.

Cedar Grove Capital Management

MAMA: M&A, Meatballs, and Margin Expansion in this Turnaround Story

As disclosed in my May 12th post, I held a long position in Mama’s Creations (MAMA) and still do. This company is not sexy and does not require you to understand a complex industry, factor in geopolitical exchanges, or even how AI will impact the business…

Listen now

2 years ago · 5 likes · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

I wrote my thoughts on Mama’s Creations (MAMA) and the stock has done incredibly well since. There isn’t rocket science that goes into this name nor is it even remotely a sexy business. The thesis to this name is that the company has successfully executed a turnaround and continuing under the helm of the current CEO, more of the same can be expected. The market is very fragmented which leaves room for lots of M&A in the future to help drive growth toward its $1 billion revenue target. As fas a names go that have plenty of upside over the long-term without needing to swallow tons of volatility, MAMA is a name you should be interested in.

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Tweets of the Week

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General Research

BIG by Matt Stoller

Inside the Mafia of Pharma Pricing

Welcome to BIG, a newsletter on the politics of monopoly power. If you’d like to sign up to receive issues over email, you can do so here. In 2022, an executive at a health insurance company expressed concern at the games his company was playing with drug prices. He pointed at the drug Gleevec, which when it was approved in 2001, was a…

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2 years ago · 282 likes · 16 comments · Matt Stoller

Stat Significant

What Makes Star Wars Fandom So Unique? A Statistical Analysis of Entertainment's Ultimate Fanbase

Intro: (Arguably) The Most Consequential Deal in Hollywood History In 1974, fresh off the breakthrough commercial and critical success of American Graffiti, director George Lucas set his sights on something rather untraditional for his next project—an epic space opera…

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2 years ago · 40 likes · 7 comments · Daniel Parris

Cedar Grove Capital Management

COTW: Cava's Nosebleed Valuation Makes (No)Sense?

Cava is nearing the 1-year mark since its IPO and needless to say, it’s gotten plenty of attention as being the next Chipotle (CMG). I originally covered the name last year which you can find below. B…

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2 years ago · 14 likes · Paul Cerro

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

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Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

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Investment Pitches

Multibagger Monitor

Inflecting Drone Company w/ Near-Term (+300% vs. -30%) Binary Event ($RCAT)

The Company Red Cat ($RCAT) is an Utah based manufacturer of small defense drones. They are the only public U.S. small defense drone manufacturer capable of large scale production. In September 2021, Red Cat acquired subsidiary Teal Drones. Teal is Red Cat’s primary revenue driver, and one of two remaining candidates for a $600m …

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2 years ago · 16 likes · 4 comments · Multibagger Monitor

TL;DR:

First off, I love everything about this pitch. I actually might buy it myself. shared his thoughts on an event driven trade for Red Cat Holdings (RCAT). Red Cat is in the final 2 for a DoD contract for defense drones that could total multiples of what the current market cap is. The author goes into detail what makes the contract so interesting, how the company stacks up against the other competitor, and what the potential upside could be should they win. The decision is likely to be announced in September.

DF Research

Willscot's Overlevered Fleet with Unrentable Units Set to Become a Problem for McGrath Shareholders

A Modular unit at Willscot Cherry Hill, NJ - June 2024 We are short the shares of Willscot Mobile Mini (WSC). We believe the “special sauce” of Willscot’s business model is underinvestment in fleet assets, which flatters short-term free cash flow…

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2 years ago · 4 likes · 1 comment · Keith Dalrymple

TL;DR:

Next pitch comes from who is short Willscot Home Mini (WSC). Kieth goes into detail that the company’s favorable capex spending relative to its peers is actually not because of efficiency but rather significant underinvestment in its aging fleet of mobile homes. Because of this underinvestment, the company is sitting on assets that are old, decrepit and otherwise “unrentable”. Additionally, the low utilization rates relative to peers seems to hide in the shadows of optimistic forward guidance and the abnormally large share buybacks. Kieth thinks it has plenty of more room to fall and based on his evidence, I would agree.

Eagle Point Capital

Advance Auto Parts: Will this Turnaround Finally Turn?

Advance Auto Parts has been a value trap for years. The company operates in an industry that is home to two of the best performing stocks over the past several decades: O’Reilly Auto Parts and AutoZone. Advance Auto Parts, on the other hand, has been in a constant state of catch-up. The gap in the returns of O’Reilly and AutoZone versus Advance has been…

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2 years ago · 7 likes · 1 comment · Dan Shuart

TL;DR:

shared their thoughts on Advance Auto Parts (AAP) potentially being the time for their turnaround moment. For years, the company has dramatically underperformed its peers ORLY and AZO. Eagle goes into what management has highlighted as value creation priorities that could help the company start righting the ship. With a depressed FCF margin, even correcting this by just a few hundred basis points could really add significant tailwinds for reinvestment should the company be able to execute. But I love the way he leaves it off, “The problem is, the same opportunity exists today that existed in 2015.”

Cedar Grove Capital Management

GEN Restaurant (GENK): A Multi-bagger In The Making

Key Highlights: Currently a few dozen restaurants with a clear path to a few hundred Some of the highest restaurant AUVs in the industry with an emphasis on “value” Ability to boost restaurant-level margins through premium menu offerings, diversified unit growth, and economies of scale…

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2 years ago · 8 likes · 2 comments · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

Given the recent price action, I wanted to highlight my pitch on GEN Restaurant Group (GENK). It’s a very simple Korean BBQ chain that is rapidly expanding outside its core California stomping grounds. The unit prospects for the company are not outrageous either and with AUV and comprable margins similar to other peers, the base effects of unit growth can really supercharge this company’s returns. While it’s not the next Chipotle, that doesn’t mean that it can’t become a multi-bagger in the future.

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Michael Snyder’s Substack

We Haven’t Seen A “Historic Surge” Of Corporate Bankruptcies Like This Since The Great Recession

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2 years ago · 27 likes · 7 comments · Michael Snyder

Economic Forces

Does raising drug prices reduce opioid deaths?

Imagine you’re a policymaker trying to tackle the opioid crisis. You decide to crack down on prescription opioids, making them harder to get. Surely this will reduce opioid use and save lives, right? After all, raising prices reduces the quantity demanded…

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2 years ago · 33 likes · 1 comment · Brian Albrecht

Cedar Grove Capital Management

Recession Indicator: Sahm Rule Getting Close to Triggering

“Unemployment never just goes up a little bit. It almost always goes up a lot a bit.” - Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research, Renaissance Marco Now I’m not about to start sending out macro research re…

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2 years ago · 9 likes · Paul Cerro

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Podcasts & Interviews

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

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Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

Sorry, there is no Weekly Snack this week. As some of you may know, I recently turned my other newsletter, , into a paid research service.

Since I’m putting so much time into that in order to continue delivering high-quality research, I’m going to be pausing Weekly Snacks until I can make sure I can accurately manage my time for all other newsletters.

This does NOT mean that Weekly Snacks is going away, just that it’s on a brief pause for at least the next few weeks. To give you an update on how the ideas that this newsletter have performed, I’ve included the returns of names that have had at least 6 months of time since posting.

Thank you again for your support, and Weekly Snacks will be back soon!

Best,

Paul Cerro

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Investment Pitches

Kairos research

Dream Finders Homes. A dreamy company in a tough market.

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2 years ago · 14 likes · 4 comments · Kairos research

TL;DR:

shared their thoughts on Dream Finders Homes (DFH), a land light home building platform primarily in the southeast US. Given their land light model (which he breaks down in his post), the company has been able to deliver an average ROE of 38% over the last decade. Kairos believes that the opportunity for DFH lies in the supply demand imbalance in the market and their historic success in growth through acquisition. Given the authors breakdown of the opportunity and estimated financials, he believes the return could be upwards of 150% should the growth expectations play out.

Raging Bull Investments

BQE Water

Disclaimer: Nothing on this blog is intended as financial or investing advice. Please do your own due diligence. A couple weeks back, as some of you know, I had the opportunity of pitching an idea during a Twitter Spaces (the event included some very good investors and ideas, and I would encourage anyone who hasn’t yet listened to do so). Following the …

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2 years ago · 21 likes · 11 comments · Jake LaMotta

TL;DR:

over at shared his thoughts on BQE Water (TSE: BQE), a specialist in water treatment in mining processing. BQE involves itself in every stage of the mine process which means that their contracts with partners should be able to run for 30 years. Jake’s thesis for BQE is simple, they have an extremely asset-light and scalable business model, competitive advantages from being mandated by regulation, stickiness of customer relationships, a pure lack of competition and patented technologies. Based on more in-depth analysis in the post, Jake thinks it could be worth up to $125/share, almost a 100% upside from current prices.

TL;DR:

Perimeter Solutions (PRM) is the sole company that sells fire retardant to the US Forest Service. Because PRM is in the business of providing fire fighting products, Ensemble believes that the stock ended up trading almost like a futures contract on estimated 2023 acres burned. Given the rise in utility companies lines causing wildfires, the risk is in PRM losing their monopoly status. This led to the government working with Fortress to minimize sole source vendor relationships. However, last month, the challenges of this industry because clear when the Forest Service announced that they would not be signing a contract with Fortress because further testing had shown that their product corroded the airtanker planes it was used in. Ensemble believes that PRM is one of those companies that does truly difficult things well and it’s poised to give them a rewarding competitive moat.

Cedar Grove Capital Management

M&A Arb Update: Analyzing the FTC Complaint Against Tapestry (TPR) and Capri (CPRI)

As my first paid research post, I’m going to be going over the FTC complaint in detail and address all of their concerns, and provide rebuttals and counterpoints to each argument. For those of you who are new, I announced on Sunday via the post below that CGC will be going paid…

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2 years ago · 7 likes · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

With the recent exchange between Tapestry (TPR) and the FTC, the spread has almost been the widest since the FTC formally sued to block the deal back in April. The above post takes the FTC complaint and boils down point by point why the agency is wrong in suing to block the deal and why they are misunderstanding the marketplace. Each point the FTC brings up is followed by a genuine rebuttal backed with data and research of which I assign a low and high probability of “winning” in court. As an arb trade with a near 58% upside, having all the information necessary to make an informed decision is critical.

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Edelweiss Capital Research

The Value of Patience: daily investor’s biases

Market fluctuations and the relentless flow of economic news can quickly push investors toward rash decisions.. The psychology of the investor plays a critical role, often, or always, underestimated. This article delves into the complexities of our biases and how these influence our financial choices, illustrating with personal experiences and real case…

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2 years ago · 22 likes · 8 comments · Edelweiss Capital

The Voice of the Frontline

Behind the Bankruptcy: Rue21 Employees Speak Out on Misconduct During Company Collapse

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2 years ago · 17 likes · 29 comments · Kit Campoy

Flyover Stocks

The Religiosity of the Berkshire AGM, The Downside of Consumer Surplus, and Being Right for the Wrong Reasons

The geographical pilgrimage is the symbolic acting out of an inner journey. The inner journey is the interpolation of the meaning and signs of the outer pilgrimage. One can have one without the other. It is best to have both. - Thomas Merton The Religiosity of the Berkshire AGM…

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2 years ago · 16 likes · 2 comments · Todd Wenning

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Podcasts & Interviews

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

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Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Investment Pitches

Rijnberk InvestInsights

TSMC – Let’s be realistic; this is a no-brainer today

TSMC , or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, is one of the greatest and most successful companies worldwide. The company is the go-to for all fabless semiconductor manufacturers, including almost every high-end semiconductor designer today, including Apple, AMD, and Nvidia. It has grown into one of the largest companies globally, with a market cap of $600 billion…

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2 years ago · 19 likes · 4 comments · Daan Rijnberk

TL;DR:

Our first pitch comes from and their thoughts on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). Semi’s have been the buzz over the last 18 months and TSMC is one many investors have talked about. With a 1-year return of over 60%, the author goes into the Q1 update, the risks associated with China, future financials that show a contraction on margins but growth overall. They end up going over valuation, which with their numbers, implies a 17% annual return going forward from the current price.

Uncommon Profits

XPEL: Now At The Biggest Inflection Point In 4 Years

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2 years ago · 23 likes · 8 comments · Luke Wolgram

TL;DR:

Another hot stock that’s been talked about over the years is Xpel Inc (XPEL). over at shared his updated thoughts on the company and why he believes that analysts have priced this company way too low. He goes over recent financials and rebuttals on analyst estimates while also diving into points touted by short sellers on why the company shouldn’t be priced at a premium. His analysis comes with his own 2024 financials for a base/bull case which depending on how you view your implied multiple, means the stock could be worth anywhere from $34 - $105 based on his math. It’s one to read if you’re a current investor looking for some additional clarity.

Treasure Hunting

Spar Group (SGRP) trades at less than 3.5x EV/EBITDA with several potential catalysts

After the sale of its joint venture partnerships, Spar Group will have about 40% of its market cap in net cash and trades at less than 3.5x EV/EBITDA (15% FCF yield). Share buybacks and M&A serve as potential catalysts going forward. Overview The Spar Group is a marketing services company that helps retailers increase their sales. They offer a wide range …

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2 years ago · 22 likes · Sebastian

TL;DR:

I’ve had on here from before and he recently came out with another piece on Spar Group (SGRP), a marketing services company that helps retailers increase their sales. SGRP is currently going through a sales process that will inevitably leave it with ~40% of its market cap in cash while trading at just 3.5x EV/EBITDA. He goes over the company, its financials and suggests that should the company get a re-rating to just its historical average of 6.2x, that implies an 85% upside to the stock.

Analyzing Good Businesses

AGB 2024.2 - Ashtead Group (AHT.L)

Subscribe to AGB - One analysis of a good business in each issue. Ashtead Ashtead is the 2nd largest equipment rental company in North America. The company supports 800k+ customers and has a fleet of 1M+ rental units, which are offered at 1,181 locations in the U.S., 136 in Canada and 191 in the U.K. Ashtead is headquartered in the U.K. but most of the bu…

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2 years ago · 36 likes · 6 comments · YoungHamilton

TL;DR:

over at published his thoughts on Ashtead Group (AHT.L), the 2nd largest equipment rental company in North America. The company supports 800k+ customers and has a fleet of 1M+ rental units, which are offered in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. Young suggests that being the #2 equipment rental company in NA benefits from scale (pricing, clients, markets) which have trickled down to the bottom line. Additionally, the company has done a lot of strategic M&A which have allowed Ashtead to really ramp up topline growth post bolt-on acquistions were completed. It’s an interesting company to take a look at if you’ve been curious about the rentail equipment space.

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Twenty Punch Investments

In-Depth Industry Overview - U.S. Franchised New Car Dealerships

In October 2022, I wrote an article on Group 1 Automotive , which also provided a high-level industry overview of U.S. franchised new car dealerships. This new article will discuss the industry in m…

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2 years ago · 7 likes · 4 comments · MJS

Uncharted Territories

Why I Don’t Invest in Real Estate

Real estate has been a great investment for so long that people think it always will be. This is a mistake. I don’t think it will. Powerful forces have been raising housing prices for decades. But they are now petering out, even reversing. As time passes, housing prices might shrink…

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2 years ago · 261 likes · 98 comments · Tomas Pueyo

Kyle Poyar’s Growth Unhinged

How AI apps make money

👋 Hi, it’s Kyle Poyar and welcome to Growth Unhinged, my weekly newsletter exploring the hidden playbooks behind the fastest-growing startups. My most popular post this year is a deep dive into the state of SaaS pricing. As SaaS increasingly morphs into Al-infused applications, what’s the state of AI pricing…

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2 years ago · 65 likes · 12 comments · Kyle Poyar and Palle Broe

Construction Physics

How to Build a $20 Billion Semiconductor Fab

For the last several decades, one avenue of technological progress has towered over nearly everything else: semiconductors. Semiconductors are materials that can have their conductivity varied by many orders of magnitude, which makes it possible to selectively block and allow the flow of electron…

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2 years ago · 95 likes · 11 comments · Brian Potter

Pari Passu

PP: The Party That Never Fizzled Out: The Double Restructuring of Party City Holdco

Welcome to the 74th Pari Passu Newsletter. After learning about the Implosion of Voyager a few weeks ago, I am excited for today’s restructuring case study: Party City. A 2017 Business Insider article once declared that “Party City has a reason to celebrate.” The company appeared to be defying all the odds in an abysmal environment for retail, with moder…

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2 years ago · Restructuring__

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Podcasts & Interviews

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

Share

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Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

Subscribe now

I also post my own thoughts on various equities, generally in the consumer and retail space via Cedar Grove Capital. Positions are generally L/S, Arb, IPOs, and Special Situations should you be interested.

Cedar Grove Capital Management

Multi-strategy investment fund focused on L/S, M&A Arb, and Special Situations.

By Paul Cerro

Investment Pitches

StockOpine’s Newsletter

Lululemon: Is the Brand's Power Really Fading?

On March 21st, 2024, lululemon athletica Inc. (“lululemon”, "LULU", "Company") released its fiscal year ("FY") 2023 and Q4 FY23 results. While the Company met expectations, comments from CEO Calvin McDonald, such as "we're navigating what has been a slower start to the year in this market", along with revenue estimates of $10.7 billion to $10.8 billion for FY24—below analysts' forecasts of $11 billion—were significant factors in the subsequent sell-off. Additionally, downward revisions by analysts, including Jefferies' price slash to $240, further contributed to the decline in share price, dropping from approximately $480 per share before the earnings announcement to around $360 today…

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2 years ago · 21 likes · 6 comments · StockOpine

TL;DR:

Returning author shared their thoughts on Lululemon (LULU) after its stunning 30% drawdown post earnings. Many were spooked that lulu’s topline growth had decelerated massively from previous years and Jefferies cited that its profitability could hit a wall and inflect negatively. Stock Opine goes into detail about the company and its recent earnings release and highlights some interesting visuals. One of these visuals comes from MS where investors are getting worried about competition from Alo/Vuori yet LULU still sees, at times, better store traffic after an Alo store opening 3M and 6M after. It’s an interesting case becuase of how well the company has done since COVID but given the authors model, they still believe there’s upside in the stock post earnings.

Nicoper’s Notes

17. Pinetree Holding: Special situations vehicle of Leonard family

Pinetree is a former resource management company with its purpose redefined in March 2016 when a group of investors acquired it from its previous owners. Now, Pinetree is an investment vehicle that invests in public market listed software companies, predominantly owned by L6 Holdings, representing interest of the Leonard family (founders and owners of Constellations Software). There is no particular geographical focus as current holdings are located in North America, Europe and Australia. Some of them can be classified as growing companies, some as special situations. Faith would have it, there are a lot of those these days. Although not disclosed officially, their investment history also shows that they closely follow (but not blindly) some of the activities of Constellation Software and its business units. Pinetree carries more than CAD 400 million of prior period losses which serve as tax shield for future capital gains only, and manages a growing portfolio of more than to CAD 40 …

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2 years ago · 10 likes · 6 comments · Nicoper Note's

TL;DR:

This pitch is a rather interesting one because it is different and to be completely frank, I’m not sure if I fully understand the trade but the thought behind it is there for someone who’s willing to dive into the weeds for it. published their thoughts on Pinetree Capital (PNP.TO) who essentially is an investment facility for the Leonard Family (Constellation Software). The play here is that Pinetree has had so many cumulated losses which serve as a tax shield for future capital gains. He goes in DEEP with the math on current holdings, how to value them and what the future price could be based on various financial metrics and inputs. Again, it’s a long read, arguably a simple yet complex trade to understand but if he’s right, the upside is massive.

Yet Another Value Blog

Monthly special situation review: $ADTH go-shop

Every month, I’ve started putting out a tweet asking what everyone’s favorite special situation is (here’s this month’s). I can’t claim that’s a unique tweet; plenty of accounts do it. It’s pretty go…

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2 years ago · 33 likes · 3 comments · Andrew Walker

TL;DR:

shared their thoughts on a special situation on AdTheorent Holding Company (ADTH), a leading supplier of cable and satellite DTH communications equipment. ADTH announced a merger to be acquired at the beginning of the month for $3.21/share with a “go-shop” clause as a part of the deal. The author believes that there is a pretty good chance the company could get another offer and an overbid price from the current $3.21 being offered. There’s reasons to believe that the company might get another bid, espeically after a great ER and how it has traded above the $3.21 price for much of March. The author breaks down the deal further and provides reasoning as to why he believes a higher bid could likely come in.

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Investment Talk

Why Lululemon isn’t Under Armour

The following passage is adapted from my sister newsletter called Notes to Self; where I write concise notes…to myself… about companies I own or track…

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2 years ago · 33 likes · 2 comments · Conor Mac

Roiss' Conclusions

The Bubble Tea Market | Nayuki Holdings and interesting Midcaps in Hong Kong

Hello, Today I will quickly write about my Hong Kong Mid Cap buys and then look at the bubble tea market and the company Nayuki Holdings. Bubble tea is a section that has been very much ignored by investors due to the lack of publicly available companies despite huge growth. It has also been very much ignored in the West, given that it is mostly an Asian…

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2 years ago · 16 likes · 13 comments · Roiss' Conclusions

Bits and Bytes

Three Shifts Re-defining the Semiconductor Landscape

“I've never seen any technology advance faster than this. Artificial intelligence compute coming online appears to be increasing by a factor of ten every six months. Obviously, that can’t continue at such a high rate forever but…I've never seen anything like it…the chip rush is bigger than any gold rush that has ever existed…

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2 years ago · 11 likes · 1 comment · Pushkar Ranade

The Generalist

Editor’s Brief: The Robotics Renaissance

Every once in a while, I spot something happening on tech’s frontline that I think more people should be paying close attention to. Something that has the potential to radically remake our world, change how we live, and – for the pragmatic investor – possibly deliver outlier returns…

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2 years ago · 36 likes · Mario Gabriele

Hype Yourself

Borrow everything I know about growing a newsletter

Hiya 🌊! I’m Lucy from Hype Yourself. I chat about self-promotion and creative living to earn an income from your expertise or passion. Today’s article is a seasonal bonus 🎁, as several of my audience requested the topic. Note: Some of my opinions go against typical Substack advice but worked for me…

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2 years ago · 217 likes · 80 comments · Lucy Werner

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Podcasts & Interviews

Preferred Shares

Breaking down the Utility Industry: Expert Insights From Ian Clark of Dichotomy Capital

Welcome to Episode 10 of the Preferred Shares Podcast. Lawrence Hamtil, of Fortune Financial Advisors, and Douglas Ott, of Andvari Associates, were the primary researchers for this episode. In this episode, we are joined by Ian Clark, founder and head of…

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2 years ago · 2 likes

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

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Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Investment Pitches

Framp Files

Moberg Pharma - Toenail Fungus Pure-Play with Potential- MOB.ST

Introduction This article is essentially an extension of my article on Cipher Pharmaceuticals, as it investigates Moberg Pharma, the developer of the toenail fungus treatment Cipher has licensed, MOB-015. Unfortunately for readers, this article is not complete, as my wife gave birth to our second child (a boy named Percy!) while I was halfway done researc…

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2 years ago · 26 likes · 6 comments · Stephen Frampton

TL;DR:

Coming off the recently hot presses of toe nail fungus, published their quick thoughts on Moberg Pharma (MOB.ST), the maker of the toe nail fungus that Cipher Pharmaceuticals has licenesed from them. MOB-015 (Terclara) if the treatment being hailed as a far superior treatment for toe nail fungs against other treatments like Jublia, Polichem P0358, NP-2313 Novoexatin and others. This opportunity has gained a lot of fanfare because the market opportunity for the treatment is estimated to be between $250 - $500 million which is anywhere from 2.5x - 5x the current market cap. With a better drug and a potentially underestimated market size, it’s no wonder why this drug and company have gotten so much attention.

Sweet Stocks

SITC – the Ryanair of container shipping stocks

SITC is a quality growth shipping company, specialised in the intra-Asia trade. Like the famous Irish low-cost airline, its niche positioning generates defendable competitive advantages that enable it to sustain profitable growth over the long term in an otherwise unattractive and cyclical industry…

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2 years ago · 9 likes · 1 comment · Alex Sweet

TL;DR:

An interesting post from on SITC International Holdings (1308:HKG), an intra-Asia container vessel specialistfocusing on point-to-point routes with high frequency. It was interesting to me because I don’t know jack shit about shipping and Alex wrote a great explanation on the business well enough for anyone to understand. As many of you probably already know, shipping largely benefitted from supply chain issues during COVID and have been coming down hard since they all peaked.

Alex believes that the company is returning to normalization and with that, historically high ROICs (avg 20.8%), positive FCF, and capital allocation when it comes to buying vessels. Factoring in continued decline in 2024 to reach full normalization, Alex thinks waiting for a bottom before investing doesn’t make sense and that now might be a good time to start looking at this company over the next 3 - 5 years.

Cedar Grove Capital Management

DPZ: Domino's Risk Reward Post +42% Rebound Isn't Worth It

To recap, back in April of 2022, I wrote my first piece on Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) once it started turning over after its incredible run-up of just over 100% from COVID lows in a little under 2 years. In…

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2 years ago · 5 likes · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

This recent note on Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) is shared by me. I originally wrote about my thoughts on DPZ back in April 2022 and thought the 2-year potential was there despite the high inflation and labor issues. My model proved pretty close to how the price unfolded on the downside and upside but relooking at the company post their most recent earnings and 42% run-up over the last 1.25 years, I didn’t think it was worth holding anymore.

In my analysis, I breakdown how unit growth tied to sales growth — which trickles down the PnL to benefit margins — wouldn’t be able to meet managements targets and thus, command a higher share price. LT it might be a different story but over the next 1-2 years, I just don’t see it. Have a look at my model and let me know your thoughts if you have any.

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General Research

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)

All good things in moderation: Fed communication needs a reboot

I spoke last night at the CFA Society of Oklahoma’s annual dinner. That side-by-side photo was on my slide titled “Scars from the 1970s loom large at the Fed.” My host, Steve Wyett, at the Bank of Oklahoma Financial, offered another observation: the communication seachange at the Fed…

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2 years ago · 31 likes · 15 comments · Claudia Sahm

Economic Forces

How Should We Think About the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

There has been a lot of discussion recently about the drawing down of the U.S.’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. As a result, I thought that today would be a good day to discuss the price dynamics of exhaustible resources like oil and what happens when a big player, like the U.S. government, sits on a large stock of that resource…

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2 years ago · 18 likes · 1 comment · Josh Hendrickson

Data Driven Investing

SoFi Convertible Notes: the Good, the Bad, and the Stock Price Reaction

Recently, SoFi engaged in two separate transactions that they announced at the exact same time. Both of them were regarding senior convertible notes. This was a complicated transaction and there are both positives and negatives. I’ll do my best to lay out the facts of the transactions, and then give commentary on what is good and bad about each part. Al…

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2 years ago · 15 likes · 8 comments · Data Driven Investing

The Grumpy Economist

The Fed and risk premiums

It is an article of faith on Wall Street, and in much of the press, that when the Fed lowers interest rates, it sparks a “reach for yield,” a “bubble,” a decline in the risk premium of other assets including stocks and houses. Not so, says a recent excellent paper…

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2 years ago · 28 likes · 7 comments · John H. Cochrane

Scientific Discovery

Four charts to understand causes of death across the lifespan: A dataviz walkthrough

This is a new section within Scientific Discovery, called “Notes”, where I share thoughts on technical topics usually with a research-focused angle. You can opt out of this section while still keeping up with my regular posts…

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2 years ago · 26 likes · 2 comments · Saloni Dattani

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Podcasts & Interviews

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

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Investment Pitches

The Last Bear Standing

Blade and the Trough of Disillusion

This is not investment advice. I own shares of BLDE and BLDEW. In last Friday’s post, Gems in the Junkyard, I included Blade Air Mobility, Inc (BLDE / BLDEW) as one of seven deSPACs that I thought looked intriguing. I was happy with the whole list, but there was only one company that I couldn’t stop thinking about, on Friday, and Saturday, and Sunday…

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2 years ago · 40 likes · 6 comments · The Last Bear Standing

TL;DR:

I really enjoyed this pitch from on Blade Air Mobility (BLDE). He literally starts off his pitch with “no one seems to think this is a good company” probably because it’s a deSPAC that nosedived since going public. The value here is that the Blade that we all knew from inception was transporting rich people (or wannabe rich people) via helicopters and planes to top destinations. However, the company expanded into medical transportation and has really taken off since then, accounting for a majority of its revenue in 2023. The asset-light nature (10% of aircraft is leased) of this business, opportunity in the medical transport space, optimization of short form travel can help it become profitable as as soon as this year. It’s an interesting play and the author did a great job breaking down the transition, market opportunity, and the financials.

The Mikro Kap

Cardonomics

Given that it has already been 6 months since I first bought Card Factory and the stock is currently trading only slightly above my average purchase price, I decided to send you guys a short and sweet thesis on why I believe $CARD.L is an attractive opportunity…

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2 years ago · 21 likes · 10 comments · David Katunarić

TL;DR:

This one is interesting because it deals with the very boring business of greeting cards. over at Mikro Kap posted his updated thoughts on Card Factory (CARD.L), in what he describes as, “Cardonomics”. Card Factory is a UK based greeting card company that has over 1,000 locations and control ~30% of the market. He makes the case that the company is best positioned to beat out its rivals through vertical integration, ability to have favorable lease-terms on their locations, a dividend suspension that is expired, its ability to gorw new stores at an attracive ROIC. It sounds so dumb when you’re reading a pitch about greeting cards but I really enjoyed reading this one by David where he hints at possibly achieving a +20% CAGR.

TL;DR:

First time mention from Brandon over at Macro Ops and his thoughts on GEN Restaurant (GENK), is a Korean BBQ-themed all-you-can-eat restaurant. Brandon argues that the company can do well because guests can cook their food which reduces the need for kitchen space so more tables can be added and thus, improving sales per square foot. This also has an effect on store level margins because GENK doesn’t need to hire chefs and outfit an expensive kitchen. Store expansion (37 → 250+) and 40% store returns are just the few attractive pieces about this pitch. Brandon believes this could be a 5x-bagger in the future.

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The Wealth of Nations

How Brexit Wrecked the Stock Market

Thanks for reading the Wealth of Nations. I make no apologies for the fact that this post is longer than usual. I think this is one of the biggest issues in Britain today and is not getting anything like the attention it deserves. My particular thanks to those who have paid for a subscription whose support helps fund my work. For those reading this post…

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2 years ago · 50 likes · 13 comments · Simon Nixon

Investment Talk

15 Ideas from Seth Klarman’s Margin of Safety

Out of Print ≠ Out of Style Seth Klarman’s infamous book, Margin of Safety, was published in 1991 in limited supply. It’s rumored that only 5,000 copies of the first edition were printed. At the time, Klarman was a relative unknown and the book didn’t sell very well. Years later Klarman became a household name…

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2 years ago · 44 likes · 4 comments · Conor Mac

Economic Forces

Monopolies don't make enough money (from the archives)

Margot Robbie is making a movie based on the board game Monopoly. I never thought I’d start a newsletter that way, but here we are. In honor of all this monopoly talk, here is my first newsletter on the topic of monopoly—not the board game. While the title of the newsletter was meant to catch your attention, the economics is right. I have followed this p…

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2 years ago · 20 likes · 2 comments · Brian Albrecht

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you yourself have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Investment Pitches

Motorhead

Tesla is No Longer a Growth Stock But Still Valued as One

I now have Tesla’s 2024 deliveries down by 9.3% YoY to 1.64 million units (consensus is at 1.99 million units). My Q1 EPS estimates are now $0.36, or 40% below consensus estimates of $0.59. My full-year Tesla EPS estimate is $0.98 versus the consensus of $2.89. If I’m right, anyone buying Tesla right now (like Ark Invest) is fine with a PER of 289x ver…

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2 years ago · 31 likes · 16 comments · Motorhead

TL;DR:

Tesla (TSLA) is by no means anything new when it comes to an investment. However, with what’s going on in the EV space recently, it’s hard not to talk about it. shared a quick piece on the recent Q1 deliveries and what they believe was said (without actually being said) in that report. They make points on the excuses that were given (Red Sea and German arson), as well as building in excess of demand over the last few years. The author believes that with headwinds for demand in the EV space, that Tesla will have to do an equity offering of at least 15% in order to survive the winter that’s coming. Have a look.

Yet Another Value Blog

Is $QSR a quality bubble candidate?

A few weeks back, I posted “the quality bubble,” which discussed how a lot of traditional quality “GARP-y” (Growth At A Reasonable Price) style stocks have traded to levels that seem difficult to jus…

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2 years ago · 66 likes · 4 comments

TL;DR:

It’s interesting when you see someone pitch a long idea from a large cap considering that most large caps are often covered but highlighted Restaurant Brands (QSR) as a large cap that really no one talks about. In his post, Andrew goes over what got him interseted in the name, how the company plans on growing given its franchising model, why the franchising model is great and why the current management are the right one’s to get the job done. Trading at just under 25x EPS, the future prospects of the company with franchsing out Carroll’s once the deal closes puts it in the GARP-y category as Andrew puts it with >8% FCF yield.

TL;DR:

Bleeker Street Research put out a short report on Sealed Air (SEE) the other day on what they label as a 3-pronged assault on the entire business. SEE’s whole business is providing thin-firm plastics that are widly used for e-commerce packaging. With scrutiny coming down from regulatory pressures, public pressure, and its largest customers slowly moving away from single-use plastics, Bleecker believes that it’s a business on it’s way down the tubes. Given that the post-COVID era has made e-commerce businesses more concious of costs and public perception on packaging, SEE’s current offerings for online are the first to get hit with its food packaging products next in the crosshairs. The author does well to point out these structural shifts to support their claims and I really enjoyed this detailed read.

Dungeon Investing

Mandarake (2652.T): Profiting from the manga collectibles explosion

Half pawn-shop, half geek emporium, Mandarake is not a very typical business. In the last couple of years, its market cap has exploded (multiplying by more than 4), but it is still tiny, at about ¥20B ($130M, give or take). That explosion comes from its profits exploding 3.5x, and a modest increase in multiple…

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2 years ago · 6 likes · 4 comments · Dungeon Investing

TL;DR:

A unique kind of company that I’m sure most of us are unfamailiar with is Mandarake Inc. (2652.T), a second-hand shop of manga and related collectibles. recently shared thier thoughts on the company which has seen its market cap grow by 4x, profits growing by 3.5x and operating leverage helping profits grow by 26% in the last quarter. What’s really interesting to learn is that because of the nature of the second-hand business, inventory is key. Mandarake typically carries more than 150% of their inventory costs on the BS but the author explains that this is critical because the stores themselves are actually tourist attractions and entertainment places. The author believes that the 2 real drivers of their future success will be the continuation of opening new stores tied with international expansion. I thoroughly enjoyed this one and I hope you do too.

smallvalue.

Altri - small Portuguese company.

Discover Altri: A Portuguese small cap with €980 million market capitalization. Specializing in forest management, cellulose production, and renewable energy, it offers low valuation multiples and impressive growth potential. With a pending project in Lugo focusing on sustainable textile fibres like Lyocell, Altri presents an enticing opportunity for in…

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2 years ago · 8 likes · 2 comments · smallvalue

TL;DR:

published their thoughts on a company called Altri (ELI: ALTR), a company that specializes in forest management, cellulose production and renewable energy. The company went public in 2005 and has since delievered an over 1,800% return since then. Interestingly enough, a small company such as Altri has been able to increase their net profits by 51% over the last 10 years (35% CAGR over the last 5 years) while maintaining an operating margin of 16%. This is better than its competitors at 10% while just trading at 3x earnings. There are risks to the business that the author highlights but given their calculations of a DCF/multiple valuation, they believe the company is worth nearly 85% more than it’s currently trading.

TL;DR:

A recent short report on Doximity (DOCS) by Jehoshaphat Research claims that the business is actually shrinking and not growing like Wall Street believes it is. They believe that the business is shrinking by about 3-6% a year while having questionable accounting figures from how they report contract revenue. User engagement on the platform appears to be declining, Doximity’s customer ROIs seem to be far less than what they claim and key management have left the company in just the last year (Chief Revenue Officer, Controller, Co-Founder). This a very long but very detailed read for those that are interested.

TL;DR:

Spruce Point Management put out another short report, this time on WSP Global (WSP), a Montreal-based engineering and professional services firm. Spruce Point believes that the underlying company is not what it seems since WSP is using aggressive, non-standard financial reporting along with reduced transparency. The company claims that 2023 FCF conversion is ~110% but Spruce Point actually marks it closer to 38%, again, under the guise of ‘non-standard reporting’. They believe there are multiple instances of misclassifcations and that investors should put little faith in the board to hold management accountable. They suggest the stock is on its way to a serious decline in equity value.

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Bristlemoon Capital

The Perils of Short Selling

Welcome to Bristlemoon Capital! If you haven’t subscribed, you can join 1,580 others who enjoy our deep dives and investment insights here…

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2 years ago · 10 likes · Bristlemoon Capital

Dirtcheapstocks Substack

Warren Buffett Case Study - Greif Bros. Cooperage 1951

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2 years ago · 21 likes · Dirtcheapstocks

The Econolog

The Yield Curve Conundrum

There is a major riddle in financial markets today. Long-term interest rates are below short-term interest rates, a phenomenon called an “inversion” of the interest rate term structure. This means that the yield on a short-term bill is higher than that of a long-term bond. Most of the time, it is the other way round: the longer the term to maturity, the…

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2 years ago · 7 likes · 1 comment · The Econolog

OnlyCFO's Newsletter

Is SaaS Math Broken?

Today’s Sponsor: Vertice Did you know – businesses are wasting 385 hours every year in meetings alone to renew software contracts? Senior leaders in finance are bearing the brunt of this software burden. Finance departments have the highest share of software contract owners (36…

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2 years ago · 36 likes · 2 comments · OnlyCFO

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Podcasts & Interviews

Security Analysis

Ryan Telford: Quantitative Microcap Investing

Ryan Telford is an engineer and a DIY investor. He has a very quantitative approach geared towards microcaps. He has achieved a CAGR over the last 4 years of 37%. Links Ryan’s Seeking Alpha articles…

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2 years ago · 7 likes · Value Stock Geek

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

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Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you yourself have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Additionally, I also launched a new Substack that’s exclusively on the cannabis industry. I covered it widely in 2021 and parts of 2022 but didn’t want to incorporate that into my core notebook for people who don’t want that type of research.

If you’re interested, just click the button below. It’s also free!

Side of Weed

Exclusive cannabis equity research, trends, and deep dives

By Paul Cerro

Investment Pitches

Cedar Grove Capital Management

M&A Arb Update: The Frustrating Deal That Is Capri and Tapestry

One of the hardest parts with merger arb is playing the waiting game when not much, if at all, news has come out regarding the deal. The last time I shared my thoughts, I highlighted that I would be …

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2 years ago · 11 likes · 4 comments · Paul Cerro

TL;DR:

I decided to provide an update on the Tapestry (TPR) acquisition of Capri (CPRI). Deal probabilty since I last wrote about it has tumbled to below 48% despite no news coming out and one commission (China’s SAMR) approving the deal. Many have sold off the stock considering the FTC’s and EU’s assault on mergers this year. I outline why the deal still has good odds of being approved and briefly discuss more in-depth anti-trust concerns. Given the last trading price, the upside stands at over 25% with analyst close probability closer to 70%.

TL;DR:

I’ve had on here before and he came out with another post on his Substack about Hirequest , a staffing company. Staffing has been a hard business over the last few years as layoffs plague many sectors of the market, however, unemployment still remains low. Jaime believes that the company’s net margins will normalize and given the asset-light frachise model, could be ripe for a huge upside. The franchise model is an interesting one given they go around buying family-owned businesses and franchising them back out or placing in a franchisee of their own. Either way, they collect a 6% royalty. It’s a short, sweet, interesting play that could be an interesting play.

Treasure Hunting

Cornerstone FS: A multibagger in the making?

Usually I am not someone who is hunting for “multibagger” - I prefer to keep my investment thesis simple and predict the next year rather than the next decade. But every once in a while you come across a company that you think has a chance to be a 5x or even a 10x. What does it take to find such a multibagger? A business with competitive advantages? An…

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2 years ago · 18 likes · 11 comments · Sebastian

TL;DR:

Another returning author, Sebastian over at , wrote a post on Cornerstone FS (LON: CSFS), a foreign exchange payments company. Having gone with a new CEO in 2022, he was able to bring the company back to profitability after numerious years of losing money. The company’s primary driver has been from having a higher transaction value per customer, which has nearly increased revenue by 60% in 2 short years. Sebastian’s focus on cash generation from EBITDA makes the invesment compelling when connecting it to managements growth strategy (which is increase sales people to get more clients). He thinks that buying this company at under 10x FCF isn’t such a bad deal.

Under The Radars

Yellow Corp: Lemons or Lemonade?

Bankruptcies can be a complex process, and there's often a misconception that only lawyers and creditors benefit. While legal fees do consume the upside, in some successful reorganizations, shareholders can see significant returns. It's a high-risk, high-reward scenario…

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2 years ago · 8 likes · Under The Radars

TL;DR:

The other week, I had to pitch a unique special situation. This week, I’m having him on here again with his pitch on Yellow Corp (YELLQ), the bankrupt trucking company. The author is highlighting the liquidation value and how it could be a windfall for equity shareholders. While the liquidation proceedings have brought in more assets than originally planned, the company still has plenty of liabilities especially when it comes to pensions. Michael, labels out the assets/liabilities as well as the risks associated with how this could play out for equity investors. Like the title says, this trade could produce a lot of lemonade for investors, or just give them more lemons.

Voss Capital

PAR’s Path to $80 Redux

Elevator Pitch We believe PAR Technology Corporation (PAR) is worth more than $80/share today based on our expectation of margin expansion and growth acceleration becoming evident in the next couple of quarters, combined with the scaling of acquisitions that are both profitable and strategic while also expanding PAR’s total addressable market (TAM). Sof…

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2 years ago · 22 likes · Voss Capital

TL;DR:

shared their thoughts on PAR Technology Corporation (PAR), a cloud-based software solutions company for the restaurant and retail industries. Voss believes that the company is worth ~$80/share, nearly double what it’s currently trading for. His target price is based on the companies expanding margins from being disciplined with cost, strategic M&A that’s expanding their addressable market, strong pipeline and bigger wins contributing to their ARR. He brings math to his assumptions and if you were to believe his bull case, the upside is nearly 4x from today’s levels. It’s a long read but a thorough one for anyone who wants a justified long case to be made. An interesting one for those looking for a detailed breakdown.

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Edelweiss Capital Research

Business Model Breakdowns: Retailers

Retailers have often had a bad reputation in the investment world, perceived as highly competitive and frequently operating on low margins. However, behind this perception lies a business model that can be quite attractive if its footprint expansion is managed properly. From supermarkets to fashion stores, each one presents its own set of challenges and…

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2 years ago · 33 likes · 5 comments · Edelweiss Capital

Speedwell Memos

Balancing Risk and Return: The Simple Statistics of Investing

Welcome to Speedwell Research’s Newsletter. We write about business and investing. Our paid research product can be found at SpeedwellResearch.com. You can learn more about us here. There is a podcast of this memo available if you prefer listening to it. You can find it on our podcast feed here…

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2 years ago · 12 likes · Speedwell Research

Herb Greenberg | On the Street

‘Momentum Works Till it Doesn’t’

While this market may not be the looney land of 2021, make no mistake that the casino’s doors are wide open, with no skill necessary. Nothing said it better than a story the other day in the Wall Street Journal headlined, “How I Got Hooked on the hottest Trade in Markets – and Bagged a 2,200% Return,” with the subhead…

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2 years ago · 41 likes · 2 comments · Herb Greenberg

Buyback Capital

Is There Actually a Quality Bubble?

I recently read Andrew Walker’s piece ‘Is there a quality bubble?’: Seeing how I am very exposed to this particular factor - although I don’t think, or measure risk in these terms - I thought the general idea is worthy of a reply, and a little introspection…

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2 years ago · 8 likes · 5 comments · Larry Jamieson

The Pragmatic Optimist

“Don’t bet against America”- Are we entering a prolonged productivity boom?

Welcome back to another edition of The Monday Macro. As part of the “Don’t bet against America” series, today’s post will explore whether the US economy is ready to enter a new period of prolonged productivity boom. You see, productivity growth has been the primary engine of US economic power and prosperity since World War 2. And while productivity growth…

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2 years ago · 82 likes · 24 comments · Amrita Roy

BIG by Matt Stoller

Why the Apple Antitrust Suit Matters

Welcome to BIG, a newsletter on the politics of monopoly power. If you’d like to sign up to receive issues over email, you can do so here. Today, the Department of Justice and 16 states led by officials from both political parties filed an antitrust case…

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2 years ago · 271 likes · 29 comments · Matt Stoller

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Podcasts & Interviews

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Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you yourself have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

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Additionally, I also launched a new Substack that’s exclusively on the cannabis industry. I covered it widely in 2021 and parts of 2022 but didn’t want to incorporate that into my core notebook for people who don’t want that type of research.

If you’re interested, just click the button below. It’s also free!

Side of Weed

Exclusive cannabis equity research, trends, and deep dives

By Paul Cerro

Investment Pitches

Herb Greenberg | On the Street

Red Flag Update: 'Recession Resistant'... Really?

Quick take… When we added Savers Value Village ($SVV) to the Red Flag Alerts list a few days ago, we started with a yellow flag since the operator of secondhand thrift shops was days away from reporting fourth quarter results. Now that the company has reported…

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2 years ago · 21 likes · 3 comments · Herb Greenberg and Katherine Spurlock

TL;DR:

This one isn’t exactly a pitch but over at On The Street, shared some quick thoughts on Savers Value Village and how the thought of it being ‘Recession Resistant’ isn’t necessarily accurate in his opinion. He wrote about it more in depth on March 3rd, which you can find here but given the nature of the business (largest for profit thrift-store operator), having consumers be more concious about discretionary spending should greatly benefit Savers when in reality, based on their recent ER, it’s not quite happening. Quick, short, and with a link to the core research and thoughts above.

Enfn Spruce Point Capital Management

2.67MB ∙ PDF file

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Download

TL;DR:

The other day, Spruce Point Capital Management came out with a short report on Enfusion Inc , a technology provider for the investment management industry. Spruce Point beleives that the ‘high quality’ nature of its SaaS contracts are anything but. With increasing competition in the space, growth has been lackluster and retention of exisitng clients are not making up for the delta. On top of that, they believe there are some missteps in accounting of receivables which could contribute to revenue overstatements. The fund sees a 40-60% downside in the stock.

Under The Radars

A Deep Dive into AmBase

I may have a slight (okay, major) Ambase obsession. But for those who crave the intricate details and legal dopamine, this post lays bare the AmBase case in all its complexity. Not a casual read, but essential for anyone who wants to truly understand the full legal picture. Enjoy (responsibly…

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2 years ago · 4 likes · 2 comments · Under The Radars

Ambase

324KB ∙ PDF file

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Download

TL;DR:

The other week, Michael at sent me his pitch on Ambase Corp (ABCP) as he believes the stock is severily mispriced. Currently, the company is in litigation right now for contract violations from a 2013 purchase of the former Stienway Hall building and ground lease. Long story short, the project was scrapped and ABCP lost all its equity. However, ABCP believes that there were breaches of contract and the company sued to get back what was owed to them. Should this ligitation work in favor for ABCP, the company could rake in up to $160 million (before tax and litigation funding agreements) relative to Ambase’s market cap today at only $9m. The net payment could exceed $1.99/share vs the current $.20/share at the moment. He does run a paid substack, which you can find here, but has included the PDF version of this idea above. Would suggest giving him a follow and support his work if you like his idea along with reaching out to him on LinkedIn.

TL;DR:

shared their thoughts on HelloFresh (ETR.HFG), the meal kit company based in Germany. Many of us have probably seen a lot of their advertisements for meal kits being delievered to your door but are unfamiliar with it being a publibly traded stock. While I personally hate this type of business (meal kits), the author thinks that the company is getting the shit end of the stick given it's market share dominance, profitability, and growth in the ready-to-eat (RTE) category. He includes his modeling assumptions in the post and believes that the company could be generating significant FCF by 2033 while starting to be positive in 2025. It’s an interesting case if you’re looking at meal kit ideas.

TL;DR:

Pernas Research shared their notes on Dr. Martens (LSE.DOCS), the maker of fashionale footwear based out of the UK. After a disatrous 2021 IPO, the brand has experienced a recent revenue decline driven by several short-term operational and inventory mishaps along with general cyclical challenges in the footwear category. With the market discountng the strong brand, various growth opportunities, Pernas believes that the company’s mismanagement are now fixed and the company has a brighter future over the next 1 - 2 years. Given their quick math, they believe there could be upside of ~60% from today’s levels.

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Mindset Value

Declining Alcohol Consumption

This is a picture of a vineyard in Australia burning vines because there isn’t enough demand.Thanks for reading Mindset Value! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. I’m a small investor in a neighborhood market in Atlanta. It’s been a phenomenal investment over the past 15 plus years, as I have received my initial investment back m…

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2 years ago · 9 likes · Aaron Edelheit

Speedwell Memos

Metaphor Malware: The Clumsy Thinking That Is Crippling Your Business Understanding

Welcome to Speedwell Research’s Newsletter. We write about business and investing. Our paid research product can be found at SpeedwellResearch.com. You can learn more about us here. There is a podcast of this memo available if you prefer listening to it. You can find it on our podcast feed here…

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2 years ago · 9 likes · Speedwell Research

Kingswell

Everything Old is New Again: Enduring Lessons From the Very First Book About the Stock Market

Happy Tuesday and welcome to our new subscribers! Special thanks, too, to those who recently became paid supporters! ❤️ I have belatedly come to an important realization. Namely, that I learn so much more about how to be a successful investor in today’s markets by reading dusty old books published decades (or even centuries) ago than by scanning the finan…

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2 years ago · 32 likes · 2 comments · Kingswell

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Podcasts & Interviews

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Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

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Additionally, I also launched a new Substack that’s exclusively on the cannabis industry. I covered it widely in 2021 and parts of 2022 but didn’t want to incorporate that into my core notebook for people who don’t want that type of research.

If you’re interested, just click the button below. It’s also free!

Side of Weed

Exclusive cannabis equity research, trends, and deep dives

By Paul Cerro

Investment Pitches

Special Situation Investing

Early-Stage Compounder: PrairieSky Royalty (PREKF)

Welcome to Episode 118 of Special Situation Investing…

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2 years ago · 30 likes · 17 comments · Six Bravo

TL;DR:

by wrote a piece on PrairieSky Royalty (PREKF), who leases mineral rights to dozens of Canada’s top oil producers, both public and private. The play here is the completion of Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion which was set to increase oil barrels per day from 300k to 890k. Because of the royalty nature of PrarieSky’s business, when its customers produce and ship more product, and and if the Canadian crude discount decreases, PrairieSky’s royalty revenue will increase as a result. Because of its asset-light business model, this increase will almost entirely fall to its bottom line to the benefit of its shareholders. I won’t spoil the rest but it’s definitely worth a read.

Under The Hood

Dole: This Banana Tree has 3 Upside Branches

Introduction Dole , a well-known US household brand, was listed on NYSE via a complex reserve triangular merger in Aug 2021, including its parent co (Total Produce) delisted from Euronext Dublin. Since IPO, its relative performance lags behind S&P500 and Russell by a long mile (37% and 13%), and currently has a market cap of $1.1Bn, enterprise value of …

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2 years ago · 5 likes · Siyu LI

TL;DR:

recently shared his thoughts on Dole , the company that sells a lot of fruits and vegetables. Siyu believes that there is a valuation gap between DOLE and its peers despite to pending sales currently going on. Given the current EV/EBITDA that DOLE is trading for, the pending asset sales are valuing each significantly higher than the parent company. With normalized EBITDA and a continuation of de-leveraging, it makes for an interesting case for a multiple re-rating, especially after it’s IPO back in 2021. The debate is whether the market agrees.

Exploring with Alluvial Capital

A Mexican Blue Chip Bargain

Recently, and for the first time in a while, I took a dive into Mexican stocks. The Mexican stock market is much like those of many other emerging markets economies. Trading is concentrated in a short list of leading conglomerates, banks, infrastructure companies, telecoms, and other “investable” stocks. Beneath, there are several dozen other companies …

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2 years ago · 30 likes · 4 comments · Dave Waters

TL;DR:

shared his thoughts on a Mexican blue chip called Grupo Herdez (GUZOF), a major Mexican food company. They own a vested interest in a lot of the brands that likely you and I both buy on a regular basis. Like Siyu’s pitch above, Grupo Herdez actually trades at a lot less of a multiple than its peers (McCormick, Kraft Heinz, and Hormel). Given the more attractive growth rates, Dave thinks that the company is trading too cheaply and if re-rated, would command a near 55% higher share price. See why he thinks it makes for a compelling investment.

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Tweets of the Week

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General Research

Buyback Capital

Leverage

All great investing track records are the result of leverage. Fintwitisism…

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2 years ago · 13 likes · Larry Jamieson

Atmos Invest - Hunting for 100-baggers

Are discounted cash flow models useless?

Before diving deep into the DCF, a question for you: If you’ve answered you never use a DCF, please leave a comment and let me know how you define the value of a company… 1️⃣ What is intrinsic value? Warren Buffett has said it numerous times. Intrinsic value is the current value of all future cash flows a business will produce…

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2 years ago · 22 likes · 13 comments · Kevin

The Pragmatic Optimist

Yes, AI is in a bubble. No, it won't pop just yet.

«The 2-minute version» It’s been a couple of weeks since one of the most celebrated public companies in technology, Nvidia, crossed $2T in market capitalization. At the same time, such a landmark moment is drawing intense battle lines with speculation that all things AI are in a bubble…

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2 years ago · 77 likes · 27 comments · Uttam Dey and Amrita Roy

Generative Value

Cybersecurity Primer

This is the fourth primer in a series of primers I’ll be writing over the next 6-12 months. You can find the other three here (and I hope they’re increasing in quality as I write more of them): Data Industry Primer Data Centers Primer Semiconductor Industry Primer…

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2 years ago · 33 likes · 2 comments · Eric Flaningam

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Podcasts & Interviews

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

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Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

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Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

I hope your week is going well thus far. I wanted to write this post because we’re ~6 months into my starting Weekly Snacks as a new newsletter helping people gain access to equity pitches from various walks of life.

As I look to optimize my time on a weekly basis, I hope that Weekly Snacks can become something great. I told myself I’d give it a year, and 6 months in, we’ve grown to over 360 subscribers.

Truthfully, I thought it would have done better by now, but readers might not be seeing the value as I do on the back end. This is why I’m sharing how well the pitches I’ve included have performed and hopefully, you’ll feel inclined to share this Substack with friends or colleagues so they too can benefit from it.

So far, I’ve included 97 investment ideas since I started in September 2023. These ideas are global and vary in strategy (L/S, special situations, merger arb, etc.).

Out of the 97 names I’ve shared, I’ve included their returns below based on how much time has elapsed since I shared them with you all.

2 months, 3 months, and 4 months out from the initial share date. As you can imagine, not all have had the time to fully recognize their potential but that doesn’t mean we don’t have some stellar winners.

I stay away from large-cap ideas because honestly, most of them don’t take rocket science to understand or invest in. A lot of the best performers have been the under-the-radar stocks which I do my best to find and share with you all.

If you feel like Weekly Snacks has been beneficial to you and your idea generation funnel, please consider subscribing, sharing with friends, or even restacking the post to bring awareness.

I can’t thank you all enough for reading thus far and sharing your pitches. Quite a few good ideas have come out of this newsletter and at the very least, that’s something that I can say I’m proud of.

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Share Weekly Snacks

Until next time,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

Any feedback? Hit reply

Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.

If you find our posts helpful, please click the subscribe button below (it’s free), and if you yourself have an idea you’d like to share with us to possibly be featured, comment below.

Subscribe now

Investment Pitches

Under-Followed-Stocks

#9 Civitanavi Systems SpA

Disclaimer: The following write-up is no investment advice. The author may own, buy and sell securities mentioned in this post. Please always do your own due diligence! This company is a micro-cap. Keep in mind that even a small investment from your side can move the share price due to the low liquidity of shares. It's not easy to liquidate if you want to get out…

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2 years ago · 19 likes · mavix

TL;DR:

First share of the week comes from and his pitch on Civitanavi Systems SpA (CNS.MI), a player in the inertial navigation systems industry. The author believes that the company’s products, which is used for space launch systems, military vehicles, and in the oil and gas industry, could bring investors rich returns. The company is founder-led with high ownership interest, and has been able to grow revenue at a 63% CAGR from 2012 - 2022. Trading ~12x EBIT, projected growth in the company and margins makes this not an expensive play on the future.

Eagle Point Capital

Cummins: Odd Lot “Arbitrage” Opportunity

When markets are high and richly valued, we naturally turn our attention towards special situations. Special situations rely on a corporate action to unlock value. It’s not that Dan and I sit down and formally decide the market is high enough to warrant a change in focus. The change happens organically. High valuations reduce forward returns and make spe…

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2 years ago · 16 likes · Matt Franz

TL;DR:

posted a really interesting special situation on Cummins and Atmus Filtration Technologies . The context is that Cummins recently settled litigation with the state of California and DOJ where their settlement of $2 billion hit Q4 earnings and consequently, the company is now looking to buy back shares as they believe their share price is undervalued. The play here is that the company is looking to buy back shares (via tender offer) and investors will recieve $107.53 of Atmus stock for every $100 in CMI tenderd. There are risks here depending on odd-lots and upper limits as part of the exchange. If you’re early enough, you might be able to receive a risk-free 7.5% return in a matter of days.

Stonks’s Substack

Smart investment in Smart Sand

Smart Sand ($SND) is one of the largest suppliers of high quality frac sand called Northern White (NWS), inefficiently priced at ~50% of liquidation value and 30% book, with pristine balance sheet and rapidly growing revenue and earnings. It’s a low risk, high uncertainty idea on improving frac sand market conditions and, at the same time, 25% of my por…

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2 years ago · 13 likes · 9 comments · ValueStonks

TL;DR:

wrote a post on Smart Sand , one of the largest suppliers of high quality frac sand. The company was hit hard during the bust of over-fracking supply and COVID. Given their balance sheet at the time, the company was lucky enough to buy a lot of their bankrupt competitors assets on the cheap when things started to rebound. SND currently trades at ~50% of liquidation value and 30% of book value and the author believes that this is a low-risk investment with practically no debt. Given the recent track record of increased sales + guidance, he’s optimistic enough to make this 25% of his portfolio.

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Tweets of the Week

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General Research

An Africanist Perspective

What next for Equatorial Guinea after oil?

Thank you for being a regular reader of An Africanist Perspective. If you haven’t done so yet, please hit subscribe in order to receive timely updates. I: When the oil wells run dry Teodoro “Teodorin” Obiang, the son of Equatorial Guinea’s president who is also the country’s vice president, has an Instagram account resembling that of an influencer and no…

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2 years ago · 34 likes · 7 comments · Ken Opalo

QTR’s Fringe Finance

America Can't Afford Bidenomics

By American Institute For Economic Research Recent headlines for the January jobs report indicate a robust economy. But a more thorough look reveals challenges for Americans.QTR’s Fringe Finance is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…

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2 years ago · 59 likes · 23 comments · Quoth the Raven

American Economy Daily

Is the Housing Market Maintaining a Shadow Inventory?

Shadow inventory in the housing market refers to properties will come to market but are not yet listed. While this inventory is based on estimates, it's important to understand its significance due to the impact on the potential future supply of homes for sale, which can significantly affect housing prices and market dynamics. We are going to go through…

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2 years ago · 24 likes · American Economy Daily

Kaoboy Musings

Re: Investing - Private Credit & The Ostrich Effect.

The Explosive Growth of Private Credit Private Credit is all the rage these days among Yield Investors, and in recent days I’ve had a number of discussions/debates about the merits of Private Credit investments vs. other Yield Vehicles that invest in more traditional Leveraged Credit, like High Yield and Leveraged Loans…

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2 years ago · 37 likes · 6 comments · Michael Kao

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Podcasts & Interviews

Appreciate you taking the time to read Weekly Snacks. I hope you have found at least some of these links to be interesting enough to dive into yourself.

If you haven’t already, consider hitting the subscribe button below and sharing this Substack with someone you know.

Share

Until next week,

Paul Cerro

Weekly Snacks Twitter: @weeklysnacks

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

Any feedback? Hit reply

Disclaimer: All information provided herein by Weekly Snacks, LLC (“Weekly Snacks”) is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security.